Page 11 - 2022 IRMSA Risk Report
P. 11

Overview






          As in our past reports, we consider the three       “ˆ˜ˆ“ˆÃi` >˜` ̅i œ««œÀÌ՘ˆÌˆià V>˜ Li iÛiÀ>}i`
          ÃVi˜>ÀˆœÃ  œv  ¼*iÀ«iÌÕ>  …>˜}œÛiÀ½Æ  ¼ >Ži  ˆÌ  ՘̈   Ü ̅>Ì Üi ŜՏ` Li >Li ̜ ˆ˜yÕi˜Vi ̅i y>}à ̜
          Üi “>Ži ˆÌ] œÀ ˜œÌ¶½Æ >˜` ¼"ܘˆ˜} œÕÀ vÕÌÕÀi½ ̅>Ì   Ài>ˆÃi > ÃVi˜>Àˆœ ˆ˜ ܅ˆV… ̅i VœÕ˜ÌÀÞ V>˜ «ÀœÃ«iÀ°
          we face as a country. We indicate the scenario we   "ÕÀ  V>  ̜  >V̈œ˜  ÀiµÕˆÀià  i̅ˆV>]  ۈȜ˜>ÀÞ  >˜`
          LiˆiÛi Üi >Ài ˆ˜] …œÜ ̅>Ì Üˆ >vviVÌ œÕÀ   * >˜`   VœÕÀ>}iœÕà i>`iÀň« LÞ > i>`iÀà >Ì > iÛiÃ ˆ˜
           ,,* œLiV̈Ûià >˜` ܅ˆV… œv ̅œÃi ÃVi˜>ÀˆœÃ ܈   }œÛiÀ˜“i˜Ì] VœÀ«œÀ>ÌiÃ] ՘ˆœ˜Ã >˜` VˆÛˆ ÜVˆiÌÞÆ >˜
          “œÃÌ  ˆŽiÞ  “>ÌiÀˆ>ˆÃi  ˆv  Üi  `œ  ˜œÌ  “>˜>}i  œÕÀ   i˜>Lˆ˜} >˜` >««ˆi` ÀˆÃŽ‡“>˜>}i“i˜Ì >««Àœ>V…Æ
          ÀˆÃŽÃ° /…i œÕÌVœ“i œv œÕÀ >˜>ÞÈà ˆÃ `ˆÃÌÀiÃȘ}°  v   >VVœÕ˜Ì>LˆˆÌÞÆ >˜` ΈÃ° 7i >L܏ÕÌiÞ “ÕÃÌ LՈ`
          -Ƃ Ài“>ˆ˜Ã ՘>Li ̜ ˆ˜yÕi˜Vi y>}à ̅>Ì Üˆ Ì>Ži   > ÀˆÃŽ‡ˆ˜Ìiˆ}i˜Ì VœÕ˜ÌÀÞ >˜` iVœ˜œ“Þ] ÃÕ««œÀÌi`
          Õà ̜ ̅i “œÃÌ ˆŽiÞ ÃVi˜>Àˆœ] Üi ܈ ˜œÌ >V…ˆiÛi   LÞ  i>`iÀà  >Ì  ̅i  …ˆ}…iÃÌ  iÛiÃ  ܅œ  i“LÀ>Vi  >
          œÕÀ  }œ>Ã  >à  >  ˜>̈œ˜  >˜`  ܈  iÝ«iÀˆi˜Vi  ̅i   «iÀÛ>ÈÛi VՏÌÕÀi œv ˆ˜Ìi}À>̈˜} ÃVi˜>Àˆœ «>˜˜ˆ˜}]
          ¼*iÀ«iÌÕ> …>˜}œÛiÀ½ ÃVi˜>Àˆœ vœÀ > ÛiÀÞ œ˜} ̈“i   ÃÌÀ>Ìi}Þ] ÀˆÃŽ >˜` Àiȏˆi˜Vi° /œ `œ ̅i Àˆ}…Ì ̅ˆ˜}Ã]
          to come.
                                                              Üi ˜ii` ÀœLÕÃÌ ÃVi˜>ÀˆœÃ Ü ̅>Ì Üi Ž˜œÜ ܅>Ì Üi
           >Ãi` œ˜ ̅i ÃVi˜>Àˆœ >˜>ÞÈÃ] ̅i Ài«œÀÌ «ÀœÛˆ`ià   >Ài `i>ˆ˜} ܈̅° 7i ˜ii` ivviV̈Ûi ÃÌÀ>Ìi}Þ] ÀˆÃŽ
          >˜  >˜>ÞÈà  œv  -Ƃ½Ã  ̜«  ÀˆÃŽÃ]  ՘`iÀ«ˆ˜˜i`  LÞ   “>˜>}i“i˜Ì >˜` Àiȏˆi˜Vi] ̜ «ÀœÌiVÌ >}>ˆ˜ÃÌ Ì…i
          ̅i   ,,*]  ܅ˆV…  >ˆ“à  ̜  i˜>Li  Õà  ̜  >V…ˆiÛi   downside and position for the upside.
          ̅i    *  œLiV̈Ûið  ÓäÎä  Ài“>ˆ˜Ã  >  È}˜ˆwV>˜Ì   /…i  ÀˆÃŽÃ  -Ƃ  v>Vià  >Ài  Ü  ˆ˜ÌiÀÀi>Ìi`  >˜`
          ̈“iˆ˜i°   Àœ“  >  ÀˆÃŽ‡Ài뜘Ãi  «iÀëiV̈Ûi]  ̅i   ˆ˜ÌiÀ`i«i˜`i˜Ì  ̅>Ì  ̅i  “>ÌiÀˆ>ˆÃ>̈œ˜  œv  ܓi
          ̈“i …œÀˆâœ˜ ̜ Ài>« ̅i Li˜iwÌà œv iÝiVṎœ˜ ˆÃ    œv ̅i“ “>Þ ÀiÃÕÌ ˆ˜ -Ƃ LiVœ“ˆ˜} > v>ˆi` ÃÌ>Ìi
          ŜÀÌi˜ˆ˜}  >>À“ˆ˜}Þ  >˜`  “>˜Þ  ÀˆÃŽÃ  ܈  ˆŽiÞ   ­Ãœ“i Vœ““i˜Ì>̜Àà >À}Õi ̅ˆÃ “>Þ >Ài>`Þ Li ̅i
          “>ÌiÀˆ>ˆÃi  LÞ  ÓäÓ{]  ՘iÃà  `À>Ã̈V  ˆ˜ÌiÀÛi˜Ìˆœ˜Ã   case). If SA continues to experience a continued
          >Ài ˆ“«i“i˜Ìi`°  iëˆÌi «Àœ}ÀiÃà ˆ˜ ܓi >Ài>Ã]    LÀi>Ž`œÜ˜  œv  i̅ˆV>  >˜`  i}>  «Àˆ˜Vˆ«iÃ]
           "6  ‡£™ …>à V>ÕÃi` ˜œÌ>Li Ài}ÀiÃÃià ˆ˜ VÀˆÌˆV>   ՘“>˜>}i>Li  ÜVˆiÌ>  ՘ÀiÃÌ  >˜`  LÀi>Ž`œÜ˜
          >Ài>Ã] ̅Õà ܈`i˜ˆ˜} ̅i }>« LiÌÜii˜ VÕÀÀi˜Ì >˜`    œv  ̅i  ÀՏi  œv  >Ü]  Vœ“«iÌi  iVœ˜œ“ˆV  Vœ>«Ãi
          targeted performance.
                                                              LiVœ“ià  >“œÃÌ  ˆ˜iۈÌ>Li°  /…ˆÃ  V>˜  œ˜Þ  Li
          7…ˆÃÌ  ˆÌ  ˆÃ  VÀˆÌˆV>  ̜  ÀiۈiÜ  ̅i  ̅Ài>Ìà  vœÀ  ܅>Ì   >ۜˆ`i` ˆv Üi ÛiÀÞ µÕˆVŽÞ `iÛiœ« >˜` >V̈Û>Ìi ̅i
          ̅iÞ  >Ài]  >˜`  iÃÌ>LˆÃ…  ivviV̈Ûi  ÀˆÃŽ  Ài뜘Ãi   ΈÃ Üi ˜ii` ̜ >ۜˆ` `ˆÃÀի̈œ˜ `Õi ̜ ՘ÃÌ>Li
          ÃÌÀ>Ìi}ˆiÃ]  ˆÌ  ˆÃ  >Ãœ  ˆ“«œÀÌ>˜Ì  ̜  ՘`iÀÃÌ>˜`  ̅i   ṎˆÌÞ  ÃÕ««Þ  >˜`  `ˆ}ˆÌ>Þ  i˜>Li`  iVœ˜œ“ˆV
          opportunities that are presented. If we address the   >V̈ۈ̈iÃ]  ܅ˆÃÌ  ÀiÌ>ˆ˜ˆ˜}  œÕÀ  ÀiiÛ>˜Vi  ˆ˜  ƂvÀˆV>
          ÀˆÃŽÃ >`iµÕ>ÌiÞ >˜` ̈“iœÕÏÞ] ̅i ̅Ài>Ìà V>˜ Li   >˜` Ài뜘` ̜ Vˆ“>Ìi V…>˜}i ÀˆÃŽÃ°












                     “Equally, you may wish to be an activist by making your own individual contribution to
                     improve the odds of a good scenario materialising in the world at large, while lowering
                     the odds of a bad one.”
                     Clem Sunter


















                                                                  IRMSA RISK REPORT • SOUTH AFRICA RISKS • EIGHTH EDITION  9
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