Page 10 - 2022 IRMSA Risk Report
P. 10

Executive Summary




                                                          Ƃ viÜ Þi>Àà >}œ] ÛiÀÞ viÜ «iœ«i VœÕ` …>Ûi «Ài`ˆVÌi`
                                                          ̅i ÃÌ>Ìi ̅>Ì Ì…i ܜÀ` ܜՏ` w˜` ˆÌÃiv ˆ˜ ˜œÜ] >À}iÞ
                                                          `Õi ̜ ̅i Vœ˜ÃiµÕi˜Vià œv  "6  ‡£™°  ˜ >``ˆÌˆœ˜]
                     The key message of                   ̅iÀi  >Ài  «iÀi˜˜ˆ>  ̅Ài>Ìà  ̅>Ì  Vœ˜Ìˆ˜Õi  ՘>L>Ìi`
                     the 2022 Report is this:             >˜` >Ài ˆŽiÞ ̜ Vœ˜Ìˆ˜Õi ˆ˜Ìœ ̅i vœÀiÃii>Li vÕÌÕÀi°
                                                           ˜ ̅i -Ƃ Vœ˜ÌiÝÌ] ̅i ̜« ÀˆÃŽÃ Ài“>ˆ˜ ȓˆ>À ̜ ̅œÃi

             Currently we are only just in the            œv ̅i «>ÃÌ] >LiˆÌ >Ì >˜ ˆ˜VÀi>Ãi` iÛi] “>ˆ˜Þ `Õi
             ‘Fake it until we make it, or not?’          ̜ œÕÀ v>ˆÕÀi ̜ `iVˆÃˆÛiÞ ̜ Ài뜘` ̜ ̅i“° /…i
                                                          VՏ“ˆ˜>̈œ˜ œv ̅œÃi ÀˆÃŽÃ Vœ˜Ìˆ˜Õˆ˜} >˜` ܜÀÃi˜ˆ˜}
             scenario, which is where we have             i>`à ̜ ̅i }Ài>ÌiÀ `iL>Ìi\ ܈ -Ƃ LiVœ“i > v>ˆi`
             been for the past two years. What            ÃÌ>Ìi  q  œÀ  ˆÃ  ˆÌ  >Ài>`Þ  >  v>ˆi`  ÃÌ>Ìi¶   ÀÀiëiV̈ÛiÞ]
             is encouraging is that recently we           Üi >Ài ՘ˆŽiÞ ̜ “iiÌ Ì…i >“LˆÌˆœÕà   * œLiV̈ÛiÃ
             have been doing some things right,           LÞ  ÓäÎä°  7…i̅iÀ  }œÛiÀ˜“i˜Ì½Ã  ivvœÀÌà  ̜  V>Ì>ÞÃi
             although not nearly enough. We               Õà  L>VŽ  œ˜  Ì>À}iÌ  ̅ÀœÕ}…  ̅i   ,,*  ܈  ÃÕVVii`]
             now have to urgently overcome                Ài“>ˆ˜Ã ̜ Li Ãii˜°
             the current inertia to avoid a slip
             into the worst-case scenario of a                       “The trouble with our times is that the
             ‘Perpetual hangover’. The challenge                     future is not what it used to be.”
             is to avoid regressing on any of our                    Paul Valery, French Poet,
             ÀiVi˜Ì ivvœÀÌà >˜` œÃˆ˜} ̅i Li˜iwÌ                    1871-1945
             of our gains so far. While we are
             barely in the ‘Fake it until we make         This report sets the SA context, with opinion from
             it, or not?’ scenario, we now need to        i>`iÀà vÀœ“ `ˆvviÀi˜Ì ÃiV̜Àà œv œÕÀ iVœ˜œ“Þ° -ˆ˜Vi
             focus on sustained implementation            œÕÀ >ÃÌ Ài«œÀÌ] ̅iÀi …>à Lii˜ È}˜ˆwV>˜Ì V…>˜}i ˆ˜ œÕÀ
             of what we have started. We need             VœÕ˜ÌÀÞ° /…i >VŽ œv `iVˆÃˆÛi] i̅ˆV>] >˜` VœÕÀ>}iœÕÃ
             to leverage the progress we have             i>`iÀň«  ÌÀ>˜Ã>̈˜}  ˆ˜Ìœ  Ì>˜}ˆLi  >˜`  ëii`Þ
                                                          `iˆÛiÀÞ Ài“>ˆ˜Ã > ŽiÞ Vœ˜ViÀ˜ >˜` i“«…>ÈÃià ̅i
             made and translate our efforts               need to make decisions that are right for the country.
             into tangible outcomes. The threat            œ˜ViÀ˜Ã  ˆ˜VÕ`i  ÃÌ՘Ìi`    *  }ÀœÜ̅  «ÀœÃ«iVÌÃ]
             and    opportunity     landscape     is      œ˜}œˆ˜} }iœ‡«œˆÌˆV> Ìi˜Ãˆœ˜Ã Vœ“«œÕ˜`i` LÞ œV>
             challenging, but we believe we are           «œˆÌˆV>  ՘ViÀÌ>ˆ˜ÌÞ]  ÛiÀÞ  vÀ>}ˆi  ÜVˆ>  Vœ…iȜ˜]
             on the right course. We now need to          ÃÕ««Þ‡V…>ˆ˜ `ˆÃÀի̈œ˜Ã] VÞLiÀ ̅Ài>ÌÃ] œÀ}>˜ˆÃ>̈œ˜>
             demonstrate our staying power as a           Àiȏˆi˜Vi]   - ]  >˜`  Vˆ“>Ìi  V…>˜}i°   œÜiÛiÀ]
                                                          >`ÛiÀÈÌÞ >˜` VÀˆÃˆÃ >Ài œvÌi˜ Ã>ˆ` ̜ Li ̅i “œÌ…iÀ
             country and organisations to succeed.        of invention, and opportunities have arisen amidst
                                                          ̅i `ˆÃÀի̈œ˜] «>À̈VՏ>ÀÞ vœÀ œÀ}>˜ˆÃ>̈œ˜Ã ̅>Ì …>Ûi
             We need to leverage the                      i“LÀ>Vi` ÌiV…˜œœ}Þ >˜` œV>ˆÃ>̈œ˜ ÃÌÀ>Ìi}ˆið
             progress we have made and                    /…i iÝÌiÀ˜> ÀˆÃŽ >˜`ÃV>«i ˆÃ ˆ˜VÀi>Ș}Þ ˆ“«>V̈˜}
             translate our efforts into                   -Ƃ° -ÌÀ>Ìi}ˆV vœÀiÈ}…Ì ˆÃ VÀˆÌˆV>Þ ˆ“«œÀÌ>˜Ì >˜` ŽiÞ
             tangible outcomes.                           ˆÃÃÕià “ÕÃÌ Li >``ÀiÃÃi` ÕÀ}i˜ÌÞ] >à Üi …>Ûi À՘ œÕÌ
                                                          œv À՘Ü>Þ° Ƃ“œ˜}ÃÌ œÌ…iÀ ˆÃÃÕiÃ] -Ƃ “ÕÃÌ `iÛiœ« >˜
                                                          i˜ÛˆÀœ˜“i˜Ì ̅>Ì ˆÃ “œÀi Vœ˜`ÕVˆÛi ̜ `œˆ˜} LÕȘiÃÃ
                                                          ˆv Üi >Ài ̜ Ì>Ži œvv vÀœ“ ̅i À՘Ü>Þ ˆ˜ ̈“i° *** ˆÃ
                                                          VÀˆÌˆV>  vœÀ  ̅i  VœÕ˜ÌÀÞ  ̜  …>Ûi  >˜Þ  V…>˜Vi  œv  iÛi˜
                                                          «>À̈>Þ  >V…ˆiۈ˜}  ̅i   ,,*  >˜`    *  œLiV̈Ûið
                                                          "À}>˜ˆÃ>̈œ˜>  `iVˆÃˆœ˜‡“>ŽiÀÃ]  ÀˆÃŽ  «ÀœviÃȜ˜>Ã
                                                          >˜` iÝiVÕ̜Àà “ÕÃÌ >`` Û>Õi ̜ ÃÕÃÌ>ˆ˜>Li LÕȘiÃÃ
                                                          and country strategies as they reinforce their strategic
                                                          >`ۈÜÀÞ Àœià ˆ˜ ̅iˆÀ œÀ}>˜ˆÃ>̈œ˜Ã ̅ÀœÕ}… ̅i ΈÃ
                                                          >˜` Vœ“«iÌi˜Vˆià `iÃVÀˆLi` ˆ˜ ̅ˆÃ Ài«œÀÌ°



       8   IRMSA RISK REPORT • SOUTH AFRICA RISKS • EIGHTH EDITION
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